China’s Durian Imports Halved, Vietnam’s Share Plunges, Thailand Dominates Alone
From January–February 2025, China’s durian imports fell by half year-on-year to 23,000 tons, down 56.7% compared with the same period in 2024, returning to 2021 levels. Import value dropped to 870 million yuan, a decrease of 57.3%. The supply sources also shifted: instead of Vietnam dominating during the traditional low season, Thailand regained the lead. Thailand captured 86% of the market (14,300 tons), while Vietnam’s share plunged from 62% in 2024 to 11% (8,501 tons). The Philippines nearly exited the market due to typhoon damage, and Malaysia maintained a niche presence with its premium variety, Musang King. This change broke the previous duopoly between Vietnam and Thailand, restoring Thailand’s dominant position.
January 2025 saw durian imports from Thailand fall to 2,886 tons (down 71.5% YoY) and import value drop to 120 million yuan (down 71.3% YoY), affected by the timing of the Lunar New Year and earlier quality disputes. However, thanks to swift quality control measures by the Thai government, February imports rebounded to 11,000 tons (up 20.7% YoY), with value rising to 450 million yuan (up 3.5% YoY). Thailand enforced dual testing of pulp and peel and implemented the “Four No’s” standard (no unripe fruit, no pests, no false labeling, no banned chemicals), raising pass rates to 98%. Currently, 17 certified laboratories nationwide (each capable of testing over 2,000 samples per day, covering key growing areas such as Chanthaburi Province) ensure export efficiency. Although the average price of 32 yuan/kg was higher than Vietnam’s 28 yuan/kg, buyers chose Thai durians to reduce risk, lifting Thailand’s market share in China from 35% in the same period of 2024 to 85%.
Vietnam’s insufficient testing capacity triggered a trust crisis, causing its durian imports to plummet from 18,700 tons in the same period of 2024 to 8,501 tons in Jan–Feb 2025. January imports were 7,263.1 tons (down 67.5%), and February shrank further to 1,238.3 tons (down 88.1%), with market share diving from 62% to 11%. Vietnam’s agricultural authorities responded slowly to China’s updated testing standards; the country had only 9 China-certified testing agencies, unable to meet export demand, leading to customs clearance delays. Some enterprises were forced to sell durians domestically at steep discounts, with farmgate prices falling by over 50% YoY, and cases of buyers defaulting or abandoning shipments occurred.
Typhoons in the Philippines combined with stricter testing disrupted supply. Following the impact of super typhoon “Haiyan” in 2024 on Luzon’s main growing areas and stricter pesticide residue checks by Chinese customs, Philippine durian imports crashed from 237 tons in January 2024 to 7.5 tons in January 2025 (-96.8%), with value down 97.1% YoY. Although February recovered slightly to 27 tons, it was still 88.5% lower than the same period in 2024, indicating slow supply chain recovery.
Malaysia’s premium market remains steady. From January–February 2025, Malaysia exported 135 tons of Musang King at an average price of 109 yuan/kg (2.3 times the price of ordinary Thai varieties). Although its global output accounts for only 1%, demand in the premium segment is stable. Industry analysis suggests that if logistics costs can be reduced or mid-range varieties developed, annual imports could exceed 1,000 tons.
Future outlook: In the short term, Thailand’s dominance is unlikely to be shaken. Expansion plans in its eastern growing regions and construction of the China–Laos Railway double-track will consolidate its advantage; Thailand’s market share for the whole of 2025 is expected to exceed 85%. Vietnam needs to rebuild trust; if pass rates stabilize above 95% in the second half of 2025, its share could recover to 15%–20% in 2026, with frozen durian potentially serving as a breakthrough. In emerging markets, Laos is likely to gain market access to China in 2025, while Indonesia and Cambodia accelerate plantation development. However, shortcomings in variety certification and supply chains mean they will struggle to scale in the short term.
Disclaimer:
Source: International Fruit & Vegetable Report
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